ASTRO-FINANCE FOR OCT 2022
By Barry Rosen
GENERAL ECONOMIC INSIGHTS:
Seasonally, players come into early October and buy stocks as the adage goes buy in Oct and sell in May. I suspect that the Sun in Virgo, which is connected to Mercury and shares of stocks is supportive of this seasonal buy. This year it may work for 2-3 weeks because of deeply oversold conditions in the stock market but not seeing a bottom for stocks yet.
As we move into early October, many trends that have been in place will pause and reverse for a few weeks. The dollar which has been rising against the Pound and the Euro and the Yen will pause and retrace. The rally in the dollar is making overseas travel to Europe and the UK much cheaper than we have seen in years with the Pound getting to record lows against the dollar last week at 103.00. The Pound is very connected to Leo and the Sun and once the Sun goes into Libra again on Oct 17th, the pound will be in trouble again. We are projecting 9100 on the Pound next year. The Bank of England had to save the Pound by offering Quantitative Easing otherwise so many of their pension programs would have blow-up. The Euro is due for a bounce but their energy policy, lack of planning around Green energy, support for NATO and Ukraine, and rising rates will lead to a major crisis next year and the Euro may fall to the level of 50 to the dollar which will shock the world and create a crisis.
US rates went up .75 bps on Sept 21st and the next meeting to raise rates will be on Nov. 2nd during the debilitation of the Sun and during a Mars retrograde with Mars ruling interest rates and debts. Rates are expected to continue to climb with the FOMC forecasting that they may not stop until the 1st quarter of 2023 at 4.4%.
Concerns about higher rates may ease the first few weeks of October and this will let the stock market recover. The Consumer Price Index is due out Oct 13th and should show a decline in inflation as gasoline and energy prices have been coming off since their June high and crude oil futures look lower the first few weeks of October and project at least 7220. Gasoline prices seasonally drop into November as demand from driving eases anyway.
Venus is in Virgo, where it is fallen, will continue until Oct. 18th. Venus expands prices and when it is weak, buying is curtailed and prices decline. The CRB index which measures 15 commodities from copper to grains to energy has been declining since June and should continue lower into the fall and this will also bring down inflation a bit. Still, as Jupiter goes direct on Nov 23rd and as Neptune gets stronger in Pisces next year, inflation will come back strongly into April 2024.
The stock market will often turn a few days within Mercury Direct which is happening on Oct 2nd at 4:04 am EDT. Stocks are badly beaten up and a recovery is likely at least a few weeks and maybe at the latest into Oct. 18th.
We think this is a dead cat bounce and do not see stocks done with their correction until next year. Most stock market declines go 2-3 years as was the case from 1973-75, 1980-2, 2000-03 and 2008-2010. Stock market dashas suggest a bottom in Nov. 2023 and some of the planetary tensions in Oct. 2023 mirror what we saw when we had in Oct 1987 when Jupiter in Aries opposed Sun, Mercury and Venus in Libra (air signs) for the Oct 1987 crash.
Still, we are thinking that the S & P 500 will at least go to 3250 by the end of the year and only a mess in Europe with potential Nato/Russia conflict into January might lead to European money fleeing into the US stock market early next year and allowing a first recovery in the first half of the year.
GOLD: Gold has failed miserably despite Sun in Leo. It may finally bounce a bit. It is very oversold and due for a minor recovery into Oct. 18th but still should be lower into the end of the year and projecting 1500 or 1425 an ounce. Because of the existence of paper gold in the form of options and inverse funds, banks have been able to manipulate gold for the past 10 years and despite losing numerous lawsuits and getting fined billions of dollars, it appears they keep doing it. There is a cycle high for gold into March 2023 but not sure what will develop.
CYPTOS: Bitcoin did not do much given the strong rally in everything else. The luster is lost. With the NQ 100 bottoming for a few weeks, Bitcoin may finally recover for 3 weeks. We have a projection on Bitcoin by Oct 3rd at 17779. We are in a time window for a cycle low. Bitcoin does respond to Mercury direct on Oct. 2nd
Need 22000 to come out to see an early low and we are in a time window this week for it to happen. This may end up being a minor 4th wave bounce to 22500-22650 and if did happen it might be mid-October. There are some cycle highs into November and at best 13330 might happen. We would like to see a more meaningful low. When we are clearer on NQ patterns we can be more sure.
We will go back to thinking that this market could stretch out lows into late September or October even given where NQ may need to go. We do expect a strong rally here but this market is rather troubling and not sure it is a safe and trusting flight to a quality vehicle like it once was thought. Who takes Bitcoin at the supermarket or gas station or to pay your utility bills? The recovery cycle is into April 17th and would go back to 47500 for a 62% retracement and that is if regulators do not continue to destroy cryptos. They do not want anyone to control the monetary system besides themselves. Three or four cryptos have gone bankrupt and the war against Ripple and XRP continues with the legal suits.
TECH STOCKS: The NASDAQ 100 hit 11000 this past week and could go a bit lower still but should reverse with the Mercury station and direct action by Oct. 3rd. A 2-3 week rally may seem strong with Mercury in Virgo but it should be another fake-out and we expect new lows in the late fall. Those suffering with positions that were bought too high may not be done with their pain as we mentioned that bear markets usually go a few years.
As always, this is my snapshot thought for Sept 30, 2022. New information comes in daily. If you are a trader or investor, consider my Fortucast newsletters that are daily at www.fortucast.com. A trial subscription is 97.00/month.
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